theckhd wrote:The chance to miss, in the absolute worst case of 0 exp and 0% hit, is still only 28.5%. To lose Holy Shield, you would have to miss 6 Crusader Strikes in a row, which has a probability of 0.285^6=5.4e-4, or 0.054%.
Can it happen? Sure, anything's possible. Is it going to happen very often? No.
You have about a 5% chance of missing 4 out of 6 (binopdf(4,6,0.285)), which would prevent you from using a full 3-point SotR or WoG. You'd still be able to refresh Holy Shield, but at a cost. A 1- or 2-point WoG would probably be the best way to handle that situation. And EG procs may mitigate some of that.
And again, this is worst-case. Raise that to 2% hit and 10 expertise, and it drops the chance of missing 4/6 to 2% and 6/6 to 0.01%.
I'm starting to realize this change only strengthens WoG/Survival Builds and even further discourages Threat builds. Word of Glory can be used at 1 or 2 points (and possibly grant an EG proc) while SotR used at anything but 3 Holy Powers is a DPS loss. GC is even more mandatory now for filling in empty GCDs because Consecration without Hallow Ground can't be used half the time if you're at 50% mana. Chance to not get HoPo while struggling with mana to use CS because of a misused Consecreation? Yeah, we don't want any of that.
Perhaps WoG2 (Word of Glory with 2 HoPo) and WoG1 (with 1) should be added to the priority system of HoW>SotR>CS>J>AS>Cons(if you have the mana)>HW?
