Talent sim time. This one doesn't have scale factors, I'll re-run tonight to add them. Basic plan is to sim all the relevant talent combinations of L45+L75+L100 talents. Using Light's Hammer here in all builds, though obviously you can swap that to ES for more damage. No obvious reason to take Holy Prism right now, hence why I didn't bother with L90 talents.
A few modifications to earlier setups
-I swapped to the divine protection glyph.
-Default APL now has a "time<5" bypass on GAnK & AD so that they'll cast on the pull.
-I actually ran several versions of Empowered Seals: the standard 3-seal default, a DPS rotation (TRd), and a survival version (just runs insight). That way we can accurately judge what we gain/lose by alternating between on- and off-tanking and compare to the 3-seal version.
Default Glyphs: alabaster_shield/focused_shield/divine_protection
Default Rotation: empty (use built-in default)
TalentConfigurations:
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0012121 name=SH__DP__EmpS
0012121 name=SH__DP__EmpS_DPS APL_dpsES.simc
0012121 name=SH__DP__EmpS_SUR APL_survES.simc
0012122 name=SH__DP__Sera
0012123 name=SH__DP__HolyS
0012221 name=SH__SW__EmpS
0012221 name=SH__SW__EmpS_DPS APL_dpsES.simc
0012221 name=SH__SW__EmpS_SUR APL_survES.simc
0012222 name=SH__SW__Sera
0012223 name=SH__SW__HolyS
0012321 name=SH__HA__EmpS
0012321 name=SH__HA__EmpS_DPS APL_dpsES.simc
0012321 name=SH__HA__EmpS_SUR APL_survES.simc
0012322 name=SH__HA__Sera
0012323 name=SH__HA__HolyS
0022121 name=EF__DP__EmpS
0022121 name=EF__DP__EmpS_DPS APL_dpsES.simc
0022121 name=EF__DP__EmpS_SUR APL_survES.simc
0022122 name=EF__DP__Sera
0022123 name=EF__DP__HolyS
0022221 name=EF__SW__EmpS
0022221 name=EF__SW__EmpS_DPS APL_dpsES.simc
0022221 name=EF__SW__EmpS_SUR APL_survES.simc
0022222 name=EF__SW__Sera
0022223 name=EF__SW__HolyS
0022321 name=EF__HA__EmpS
0022321 name=EF__HA__EmpS_DPS APL_dpsES.simc
0022321 name=EF__HA__EmpS_SUR APL_survES.simc
0022322 name=EF__HA__Sera
0022323 name=EF__HA__HolyS
0032121 name=SS__DP__EmpS
0032121 name=SS__DP__EmpS_DPS APL_dpsES.simc
0032121 name=SS__DP__EmpS_SUR APL_survES.simc
0032122 name=SS__DP__Sera
0032123 name=SS__DP__HolyS
0032221 name=SS__SW__EmpS
0032221 name=SS__SW__EmpS_DPS APL_dpsES.simc
0032221 name=SS__SW__EmpS_SUR APL_survES.simc
0032222 name=SS__SW__Sera
0032223 name=SS__SW__HolyS
0032321 name=SS__HA__EmpS
0032321 name=SS__HA__EmpS_DPS APL_dpsES.simc
0032321 name=SS__HA__EmpS_SUR APL_survES.simc
0032322 name=SS__HA__Sera
0032323 name=SS__HA__HolyS
Footer: empty
APL_dpsEs.simc:
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# Executed before combat begins. Accepts non-harmful actions only.
actions.precombat=flask,type=greater_draenic_stamina_flask
actions.precombat+=/food,type=talador_surf_and_turf
actions.precombat+=/blessing_of_kings,if=(!aura.str_agi_int.up)&(aura.mastery.up)
actions.precombat+=/blessing_of_might,if=!aura.mastery.up
actions.precombat+=/seal_of_truth
actions.precombat+=/sacred_shield
# Snapshot raid buffed stats before combat begins and pre-potting is done.
actions.precombat+=/snapshot_stats
actions.precombat+=/potion,name=draenic_armor
# Executed every time the actor is available.
actions=/auto_attack
actions+=/speed_of_light,if=movement.remains>1
actions+=/blood_fury
actions+=/berserking
actions+=/arcane_torrent
actions+=/potion,name=draenic_armor,if=buff.shield_of_the_righteous.down&buff.seraphim.down&buff.divine_protection.down&buff.guardian_of_ancient_kings.down&buff.ardent_defender.down
# This section covers off-GCD spells.
actions+=/holy_avenger
actions+=/divine_protection,if=buff.seraphim.down
actions+=/seraphim,if=buff.divine_protection.down&cooldown.divine_protection.remains>0
actions+=/guardian_of_ancient_kings,if=time<5|(buff.holy_avenger.down&buff.shield_of_the_righteous.down&buff.divine_protection.down)
actions+=/ardent_defender,if=time<5|(buff.holy_avenger.down&buff.shield_of_the_righteous.down&buff.divine_protection.down&buff.guardian_of_ancient_kings.down)
actions+=/eternal_flame,if=buff.eternal_flame.remains<2&buff.bastion_of_glory.react>2&(holy_power>=3|buff.divine_purpose.react|buff.bastion_of_power.react)
actions+=/eternal_flame,if=buff.bastion_of_power.react&buff.bastion_of_glory.react>=5
actions+=/shield_of_the_righteous,if=(holy_power>=5|buff.divine_purpose.react|incoming_damage_1500ms>=health.max*0.3)&(!talent.seraphim.enabled|cooldown.seraphim.remains>5)
# GCD-bound spells start here
actions+=/crusader_strike
actions+=/judgment
actions+=/holy_wrath,if=talent.sanctified_wrath.enabled
actions+=/avengers_shield
actions+=/seal_of_truth,if=talent.empowered_seals.enabled&!seal.truth&buff.maraads_truth.remains<cooldown.judgment.remains
actions+=/seal_of_righteousness,if=talent.empowered_seals.enabled&!seal.righteousness&buff.maraads_truth.remains>cooldown.judgment.remains&buff.liadrins_righteousness.down
actions+=/execution_sentence
actions+=/hammer_of_wrath
actions+=/lights_hammer
actions+=/holy_wrath,if=glyph.final_wrath.enabled&target.health.pct<=20
actions+=/sacred_shield,if=target.dot.sacred_shield.remains<2
actions+=/consecration,if=target.debuff.flying.down&!ticking
actions+=/holy_wrath
actions+=/holy_prism
actions+=/seal_of_truth,if=talent.empowered_seals.enabled&!seal.truth&buff.maraads_truth.remains<buff.liadrins_righteousness.remains
actions+=/seal_of_righteousness,if=talent.empowered_seals.enabled&!seal.righteousness&buff.liadrins_righteousness.remains<buff.maraads_truth.remains
actions+=/sacred_shield
actions+=/flash_of_light,if=talent.selfless_healer.enabled&buff.selfless_healer.stack>=3
APL_survES.simc:
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# Executed before combat begins. Accepts non-harmful actions only.
actions.precombat=flask,type=greater_draenic_stamina_flask
actions.precombat+=/food,type=talador_surf_and_turf
actions.precombat+=/blessing_of_kings,if=(!aura.str_agi_int.up)&(aura.mastery.up)
actions.precombat+=/blessing_of_might,if=!aura.mastery.up
actions.precombat+=/seal_of_insight
actions.precombat+=/sacred_shield
# Snapshot raid buffed stats before combat begins and pre-potting is done.
actions.precombat+=/snapshot_stats
actions.precombat+=/potion,name=draenic_armor
# Executed every time the actor is available.
actions=/auto_attack
actions+=/speed_of_light,if=movement.remains>1
actions+=/blood_fury
actions+=/berserking
actions+=/arcane_torrent
actions+=/potion,name=draenic_armor,if=buff.shield_of_the_righteous.down&buff.seraphim.down&buff.divine_protection.down&buff.guardian_of_ancient_kings.down&buff.ardent_defender.down
# This section covers off-GCD spells.
actions+=/holy_avenger
actions+=/divine_protection,if=buff.seraphim.down
actions+=/seraphim,if=buff.divine_protection.down&cooldown.divine_protection.remains>0
actions+=/guardian_of_ancient_kings,if=time<5|(buff.holy_avenger.down&buff.shield_of_the_righteous.down&buff.divine_protection.down)
actions+=/ardent_defender,if=time<5|(buff.holy_avenger.down&buff.shield_of_the_righteous.down&buff.divine_protection.down&buff.guardian_of_ancient_kings.down)
actions+=/eternal_flame,if=buff.eternal_flame.remains<2&buff.bastion_of_glory.react>2&(holy_power>=3|buff.divine_purpose.react|buff.bastion_of_power.react)
actions+=/eternal_flame,if=buff.bastion_of_power.react&buff.bastion_of_glory.react>=5
actions+=/shield_of_the_righteous,if=(holy_power>=5|buff.divine_purpose.react|incoming_damage_1500ms>=health.max*0.3)&(!talent.seraphim.enabled|cooldown.seraphim.remains>5)
# GCD-bound spells start here
actions+=/crusader_strike
actions+=/judgment
actions+=/holy_wrath,if=talent.sanctified_wrath.enabled
actions+=/avengers_shield
actions+=/execution_sentence
actions+=/hammer_of_wrath
actions+=/lights_hammer
actions+=/holy_wrath,if=glyph.final_wrath.enabled&target.health.pct<=20
actions+=/sacred_shield,if=target.dot.sacred_shield.remains<2
actions+=/consecration,if=target.debuff.flying.down&!ticking
actions+=/holy_wrath
actions+=/holy_prism
actions+=/sacred_shield
actions+=/flash_of_light,if=talent.selfless_healer.enabled&buff.selfless_healer.stack>=3
Final imported profile:
http://pastebin.com/TdPubTgUHTML Report:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/bv0g79dmm0u2i ... .html?dl=0Relevant Plots:

Commentary:
DPS error ~5, TMI error ~28, build 18965
Let's first talk about the DPS rankings. Empowered Seals' DPS rotation is the clear winner. Pretty much anything paired with EmpS_DPS performs well. Within that subspace, Sanctified Wrath is the next biggest factor, giving an andvantage over Divine Purpose and Holy Avenger. Again, within the EmpS_DPS subspace, SH comes out on top for the L45 talents, but that's a bit misleading. SS costs GCDs to refresh and EF costs Holy Power, so both incur a DPS penalty. However, the fact that SH is dead last in priority means it doesn't cost any DPS, since it's just filling otherwise-empty GCDs. It also means that talent isn't being used very effectively, so it's going to perform poorly in TMI rankings.
On the other side of the coin, Empowered Seals' survival rotation is clearly the weakest DPS. In-between we find Seraphim and Empowered Seals (3-seal) roughly tied in effectiveness, with Holy Shield lagging a bit behind. Note that HS will lag even further if you're not tanking something full-time, though we expect it to gain quite a bit of ground in AoE tanking situations. So the rough conclusion here regarding L100 talents is EmpS_DPS > (Sera/EmpS_3s) > HS > EmpS_SURV for DPS.
For the L75 talents, it's fairly clear that Sanctified Wrath is the top-DPS choice. It's a little harder to see because of the way we've mashed this sim together, but the top DPS actor for every L45+L90 combination uses Sanctified Wrath. Divine Purpose and Holy Avenger are pretty close though; HA>DP for EMpS_DPS and Sera, but the situation is reversed for EmpS and HolyS. The two are usually close enough that choosing the talent based on fight conditions will make a bigger difference than the inherent Patchwerk DPS delta.
As for the L45 talents, SS does more DPS than EF, and SH is generally a little ahead of both because we're barely using it. SH would likely be lower-DPS than SS if we prioritized using FoL regularly, since we'd be using it every ~18-20 seconds rather than the ~30 we do with SS, thus costing more GCDs.
In the DTPS rankings, it looks like Sacred Shield is dominating. This is a little misleading though, since the healing from EF and SH isn't being accounted for. Unfortunately, the HPS+APS plot doesn't help clear that up very much because it's including the absorb from Sacred Shield. Suffice to say, the DTPS lead is significantly smaller than it appears. The other thing we might note from this plot is that Seraphim and Holy Shield are both pretty strong for reducing DTPS, but again, that's ignoring the raw healing of Seal of Insight and Uther's Insight, which is up to ~15k HPS. Suffice to say, I think it's dangerous to draw many solid conclusions from the DTPS or HPS+APS charts.
The TMI chart should eliminate those issues though, and here we see pretty much what we expect. SS domintes, with SH/EF lagging. HA gives a slight advantage over DP and SW under most circumstances, though again the differences are not that huge (1%-2% larger spikes). Likewise, the EmpS_SUR tends to win the day, but Seraphim and Holy Shield are fairly close behind. The 3-seal version of Empowered Seals lags a little more, and of course the EmpS_DPS version lags even further. Comparing, for example, SS_SW_EmpS_SUR to SS_SW_EMPS_DPS, we go from 112k TMI to 123k TMI, meaning our spike size goes up by around 11% of our health (but at a huge DPS gain).
Overall impression of L100 talents:
I think the most interesting thing about this sim is how close everything is. The three are all viable choices for TMI, which is encouraging. When it comes to DPS, Empowered Seals and Seraphim both give a fair DPS advantage over Holy Shield, but keep in mind that Empowered Seals only does that at a TMI cost (i.e., not when you're using EmpS_SUR). If you assume you're alternating between EmpS_SUR and EmpS_DPS, i.e. 50% time spent tanking and 50% time spent off-tanking, then your overall DPS comes in around 17500, which is a little more than Holy Shield generally manages while giving similar survival benefits.
I think Seraphim is the best-performing all around though. Above-average DPS at essentially no TMI cost means it's a solid choice under all circumstances. Empowered Seals gives you a lot of flexibility, allowing you to go into survival mode or DPS mode as necessary during an encounter, and if you can handle the TMI loss against a boss, you can reap a fairly large DPS benefit from it. I'm sort of glad that EmpS didn't end up coming out to be the "best at everything" choice, and instead encourages making seals more of a "react to combat situation" decision.
Holy Shield still feels a little underpowered to me. Giving similar survivability is great, but it's still behind in DPS even under the ideal circumstance where you're tanking full-time. If you think about a boss where you're off-tanking for part of the time, it will fall even further behind Seraphim and Empowered Seals. I'd love to see it bumped up in DPS by another 50% or so. It does ~2600 DPS out of 17675 in SH_SW_HolyS, compared to 19237 for SH_SW_Sera and 18897 for SH_SW_EmpS, leaving it roughly 1300 DPS behind the other two options. Boosting the AP coefficient to 1.125 (from 0.75) would put it in-between those two actors.
In practice, it will be lower than either due to tank swaps, but that may be compensated by the fact that it's a little better in multi-mob situations. It's a bit rough to try and balance both sides of that, unfortunately. I'd almost like to see it gain a ~0.5-second internal cooldown so that it could be constrained a little more in AoE situations, allowing for its single-target DPS to be buffed to more competitive levels.
Overall impression of L75 talents:
All good choices, really. SW has a slight DPS advantage, but DP and HA currently have a slight survivability advantage, which seems fair. Neither is large enough to make or break a Patchwerk encounter, so it comes down to personal preference, which is exactly what talent tiers should be IMO. Take the talent you like best as long as the encounter doesn't give you a reason to prefer one of them over the others. Also note that DP tends to get more powerful as an expansion goes on thanks to the inherent increase in HPG as we get more haste (provided we're still stacking haste!).
Overall impression of L45 talents:
SS is dominant again, there's just no way around it. EF is just a little undertuned at this point, and I think that's primarily because we're more constrained on Holy Power at the beginning of the expansion, so that opportunity cost is just more problematic than it is at the end of an expansion. EF could stand to be slightly buffed to make it more competitive with SS in T17, and then scaled back if it becomes too strong in later tiers.
SH is a bit of an odd duck. We're not really doing it justice in these sims, to the point that I almost considered ignoring it entirely out of fear that these results would be misinterpreted. I left it in because in reality, the effect should be larger than the stochastic version in the hands of a good player. Thus, our SH results should be an acceptable "baseline" of how well it performs if we use it poorly. But it's hard to put a number on how much it will improve TMI in the hands of a good player without some more research into exactly what sort of APL conditionals we should put on it, and where it should go in the rotation as an emergency heal. Particularly problematic is that the conditionals and APL priority slot that maximize its performance will probably vary based on the boss you're fighting.
But I think it's fairly safe to say that SH isn't an awful choice anymore. I think there will be some debate over whether it's actually stronger than SS or EF for some players, even. But unlike MoP, it's not so far behind that it can be safely ignored. An on-demand heal that's roughly the size of a boss attack (at least in this sim) isn't that bad, even if it's not as good for steady-state survivability.
TLDR:
Holy Shield could use a slight DPS buff (~50%), but all L100 talents are at least viable. EmpS is most versatile, Seraphim best all-around.
All L75 talents are viable, with slight DPS/TMI variations for each
SS is the dominant L45 talent. EF could use a slight buff, SH is still sort of ambiguous, but not terrible.